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Thursday, June 16, 2016

The Numbers That Matter

I keep saying that national polls don't matter in a presidential election, because a candidate doesn't win based on the popular vote. He or she has to win a majority of electoral college votes -- at least 270 out of 538 -- so you have to look at the state-by-state polls, as the people at FrontLoadingHQ have.

Based on that, they're predicting a Hillary Clinton landslide, 358-180. Read Michael Tomasky's analysis of the data and you'll see how she's much more likely to turn red states blue than Trump is to do the reverse.

Of course, there are still five months to go before Election Day, and something unforeseen could change the outcome. But if not, Trump will have redefined the word Loser.